In the previous post, we published the first results of the economic impact analysis of Alcoa’s closure, conducted in collaboration with the Group of Analysis and Modelling in Economics (GAME) from the University of Santiago de Compostela. The impact on the Galician region was estimated at 0.59% production loss, 0.41% reduction in GVA and 3.329 workers laid off. Although these results seem small, they are not so insignificant when we analyse where the effects are located. For this reason, in this post we present the loss of employment according to its geographical distribution per Galician district (comarca).
The loss of employment derived from the direct effect of Alcoa’s closure would occur mainly in the Mariña Lucense districts, since Alcoa workers who would lose their job live in this area. Secondly, the workers affected would be the ones working for the suppliers of Alcoa, as their production might be reduced after Alcoa’s closure. As has been analysed in the previous post, the most affected sectors would be land transport, auxiliary services to companies, wholesale trade and machine repair. Therefore, the most affected districts in this case would be the ones where these sectors are more important. The induced effect, the consequence of the loss of purchasing power of households, would occur mainly in the place of residence of these households. The most affected sectors would be especially services such as restaurants, health, education and retail trade. If we add up the number of workers who could potentially lose their job due to those three effects per district and divide this amount by the total employment per district we will obtain the share of workers at risk of losing their job (Map 1). The risk of losing a job due to the closure of Alcoa can affect the whole Galicia, especially the districts of production of the services and products required for Alcoa’s manufacturing, such as land transport, auxiliary services, etc. Notwithstanding, all of these districts show an effect under 0.3%, with the exception of Mariña Lucense districts. The share of workers with job at risk of redundancy is 2.2% in Mariña Oriental, 3.7% in Mariña Central and 7.3% in Mariña Occidental, where Alcoa is located. This means that the effect of Alcoa’s closure will be very concentrated in Mariña districts since this sector is especially important in the area.